Valuation (COVID treatment)

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Net Present Value

Following the announcement of tax changes in the Australian Budget released on 11 May 2021 for biotech companies reducing the corporate tax rate from 30% to 17% for medical and biotech patents held by companies that derive profits from use of such patents from 1 July 2022 for the next 4 years.

   Annualdiscountrate 
   6%10%15%
NPV per share based on 86.065 million shares*AUD$8,261.276,501.89
4,889.61
*inclusive of Third tranche Offer IPO Offer: 18.75 million shares at US$4 per share to raise US$75 million pre stock exchange listing.

USD$

5,948.12

4,681.36

3,520.52
Table of Cash flow Projections
Mobirise

Important assumptions: .

1 Annual R&D costs: starting Y0 at US$4 million, increasing by US$1 million each of subsequent years, for virology tests, respiratory toxicology tests, cost of consultants, test sample, etc.

2 Australian R&D Incentive Tax Rebate 43.5% received in the following year

3 HKSE listing expenses US$5 million on total raise US$10 + US$75 million.

4 Annual administration overheads: US$1 million.

5 Global COVID infections to reach 20% of world population on average. Spanish Flu infected 28% of global population by 1921. The US Government recently projected another 100 million new cases by last quarter 2022, first quarter 2023 due to infections and reinfections. Mutations and waning immunty have enabled immune escapes despite immunity from vaccines and prior infections. We assume this will maintain new infections at 20% of global population anually for the next 6 years.

6 Covirix will capture 2.5% market share of the global infections market (ie 7.6 billion x 20% global infections) initially from Yr1, and 5% market share at Yr2 with increase of 5% market share for each subsequent year

7 Covirix inhalable antiviral wholesaled at US$250 each course x 1 per infected person per year. We assume the current sales practice of pharmaceutical company direct to government sales to continue.

8 US$250 is about 1/3 to under 1/6 the price of Pfizer’s Paxlovid antiviral. Pfizer and Merck price their antivirals at between US$700 to US$1,400 per course.

9 Each course of Covirix inhalable materials production cost at US$15 including cost of inhaler device.

10 No revenue has been allowed for from sales for Long Covid treatment though we estimate that, 50% of people who have recovered after infections without early treatment with our antiviral, may still suffer from Long Covid.

11 Terminal value at 10 times year 5 projected cash flows based on takeover value of COVIRIX M Ltd. COVIRIX Medical Pty Ltd will be restructured for the pre-IPO to be a wholly owned subsidiary of COVIRIX Medical Holdings Ltd which will be seeking listing on HKSE under the Biotech sector of Chapter 18A HKSE Listing Rules. It is assumed that COVIRIX Medical Holdings will be acquired and be taken over by year 6 at 10 X Y5 cashflows.

12 Pre-IPO investors placement shares issued price US$2 per share. IPO price at US$4 per share.

13 Number of COVIRIX Medical shares used for valuation is 86.065 million shares assuming completion of pre-IPO offer of US$10 million and planned IPO offer US$75 million

14 Present Value Discount rate at 6%, 10%, 15% .

15 Australian Corporate tax payable at 30%, however under the Patent Box legislation introduced into the Federal Parliament on 10 Feb 2022 company profits derived from Australia or US granted medical and biotechnology patents will receive a concessional tax rate of 17 per cent from July 1, 2022.

16 AUD to USD fixed at 72 cents exchange rate.

Address

Level 1, 237 East Boundary Road 
Bentleigh East, Victoria, 3165 
Australia

Contacts

Email: contact@covirix.com

Prof Kumud Dhital
CEO & Director
kumud@covirix.com

Richard Li
Executive Director & Head of Corporate Development
richard@covirix.com

Dr Ian Nixon
CMO & Director
ian@covirix.com